Monday, 19 December 2011

FX commentary


News this morning that Kim Jong Il has passed away combined with an interview in the FT with the ECB’s Draghi in which he discusses the possible fallout from an Eurozone breakup sees risky currencies trading lower this morning with EURUSD 1.3010, Cable 1.5500, and AUDUSD 0.9935. USDJPY has also had a jumpy session, printing 78.12 highs (NY close 77.80) after the Korea news and PM Noda cancelled a speech he was due to give later on in the day. USDKRW printed a high of 1185, capped by suspected BoK selling around 1180.
USD/Asia strength continues to keep EUR and AUD heavy into the London open, with EUR running stops below 1.30 to 1.2983 low.
Data wise overnight, NBNZ activity outlook and business confidence both declined (25.7 vs. 28.8 prev, 16.9 vs. 18.3 prev),while in the UK Rightmove house prices came in at -2.7%m/m vs. cons -3.1% (though the y/y print managed an improvement on revisions to +1.5%). The UK is also in focus somewhat this morning following weekend confirmation from the coalition that the proposed splitting of investment and retail banks is to go ahead in 2015.

We are light on data today but keep our focus on EU headlines, with the weekend press reporting that Euro-area Fin Mins will hold a conference call today to discuss the debt crisis (3:30p.m. Brussels).

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