Thursday, 22 December 2011

FX Commentary


Risk trades stable in a quiet Asia session with G10 majors range bound on low volumes. Weak Asian equities drive USD/Asia higher on short-covering, but offshore flows remain light across pairs. Our orderbook continues to be thin into the year-end with small AUD demand towards the overnight lows and nothing notable in EURUSD within the next 1%.

On the data front, NZ Q3 GDP rebounded stronger than expected at 0.8% q/q (0.6% q/q cons) but negative revisions to Q4 10 and Q1 11 dragged annual growth to 1.9% y/y. The revisions were mainly due to updated respondent and Economic Survey of Manufacturing data. However, the historical nature of these revisions means they have little bearing on current economic activity in New Zealand.

Elsewhere, we have headlines that Greek debt holders are pushing back against further haircuts, comments from Swiss FinMin Widmer-Schlumpf that a govt and SNB panel “is examining options such as capital controls and negative interest rates to curb the franc’s strength” (EURCHF unchanged overnight at 1.2210) and a reminder of headlines out last night from Fitch that the US could be downgraded in the next two-years unless action is taken on the deficit.

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